Total EU beef exports are forecast to decline by 5% with beef imports forecast to increase by 10% this year.

According to the UK's Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) analysis of the European Commission's Summer 2026 short-term outlook on the beef sector, EU beef consumption has been "in a long-run structural decline since 2007".

The AHDB analysis outlines that this decline in EU beef consumption is forecast to fall a further 2% in 2026.

The graph below details the year-on-year market changes forecasted for the EU beef sector:

"The shrinking domestic cattle herd in the EU coupled with falling gross indigenous production (total domestic production plus the balance of international trade) have widened the gap between EU output and consumption, driving the forecast for a 10% increase in beef meat imports in 2026," according to AHDB.

The analysis from the UK-based entity notes that the supply shortfall of beef in the EU is being filled "predominantly by Brazilian and Argentine beef".

Beef products from these regions benefit from "structurally lower production costs compared to European counterparts", the analysis notes.

"Sustained high EU prices and limited production have eroded export volume and competitiveness," according to AHDB, which attributes these factors to the forecast for total EU beef meat exports to decline 5% in 2026.

EU/UK beef trade relationship

The factors being attributed to to the forecasted EU beef export declines this year are "reshaping the UK-EU trade relationship", according to the AHDB as UK imports of EU beef have declined steadily through 2025.

This trend is "likely to persist into 2026", it said.

The UK remains a meaningful beef exporter to the EU, but its market share "has diminished relative to Mercosur suppliers, reflecting the same competitive pressures operating across the broader market".