Food production is known to be the main cause of deforestation, however little detailed mapping has been done on which crops are driving the issue in which countries.

A new study by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden is attempting to address this knowledge gap.

This study confirms the major impact meat production has had, but also reveals several overlooked drivers of deforestation.

Chandrakant Singh, lead author of the study, developed the 'Deforestation Driver and Carbon Emission (DeDuCE)' model together with a colleague, Martin Persson, who has extensive experience in researching which agricultural commodities drive deforestation.

The model links agricultural products with data on deforestation on a global scale.

Singh said: "Deforestation’s links to food production have long been studied, but have often focused on some products, such as beef, soybeans and palm oil, which are well known in the context of deforestation; and some countries in the world, such as Brazil or Indonesia.

"In our study, we’ve combined extensive satellite data on land use with agriculture statistics in a way that gives us the most comprehensive and accurate picture yet of what is driving deforestation worldwide.”

The model, which covered 179 countries and 184 commodities, showed that a total of 122 million hectares of forest have disappeared due to agriculture-driven deforestation during the period 2001-2022.

Of this, more than 80% has been lost in the tropics.

The study confirms what was previously knew about the main drivers of deforestation: clearing forests to create pastures for meat production, as well as producing major export commodities such as soybeans and palm oil.

However, the study also highlights some more unexpected results.

Staple commodities a strong driver

The mapping has shown that locally produced and consumed staple crops have a greater impact on deforestation than many export products.

Staple crops such as maize, rice, and cassava together are responsible for about 11% of all agriculture-driven deforestation, with the figure for cocoa, coffee and rubber combined being less than 5%.

The study found that unlike many other commodities, like palm oil in South-East Asia, deforestation tied to staple crops is not concentrated to specific regions, but occurs across large parts of the globe.

Persson said: “The debate on deforestation has circulated a lot around how people in rich countries like ours cause deforestation with our commodities imports, and this is absolutely important to get to grips with.

"So to really reduce deforestation, we must also take action in the producer countries."

The researchers hope that their results can provide some important decision support for government agencies and companies wanting to take action to reduce deforestation.

“Our data shows where the risks are and where initiatives are needed most.

"The goal is for the model to connect researchers, decision-makers, companies and civil society," Singh said.

Emissions lower than expected

The study also provided a detailed picture of the carbon dioxide (C0₂) emissions that deforestation associated with agricultural and forestry products causes.

According to the researchers, farmers and cattle ranchers often clear forested land by burning it, which means the carbon stored in the vegetation is emitted as CO₂.

The emissions are estimated at around 41 billion tonnes of CO₂ between 2001 and 2022, on average close to 2 billion tonnes per year.

According to the study, these emissions are a much lower than in previous global compilations, where the annual CO₂ emissions have been estimated at more than twice these figures.

The researchers think this is because their study uses a finer-scale attribution method than those used previously.

“But even if the figure is lower than previous estimates, agriculture-driven deforestation still causes around 5% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions,” Singh said.

The researchers say the model will be expanded to included non-food commodities in the future.

Singh says there is a need to broaden the analysis beyond food and agriculture, with one example being the mining and energy sector, which is a major driver of direct and indirect deforestation.

"By broadening the analysis, we can get a more complete picture of which economic activities are putting pressure on forests around the world,” he said.