With the first few sales of the new year now behind them, farmers and mart managers are starting to get an idea of what 2026 could have in store for cattle prices.

Agriland was at Tullamore Mart to chat to farmers about how much they expect to be get paid for their cattle this year.

Many farmers told us they are concerned that prices may struggle to match the highs seen last year.

One farmer said that while there is an expectation that prices for "small cattle will stay up well," he thinks the overall price for beef will "come back down" due to tighter margins and beef not being as scarce as it was in comparison to last year.

Another farmer shared the same opinion and pointed to factories being the key driver of trade but he believes they will not be "paying €8.50 to €9/kg for beef."

He told us: "The factories dictate the price of beef, and the price of beef dictates the price of stores, the price of weanlings, the price of calves, all the way down the line."

However this farmer believes there might be an exception for "the suckler-bred weanlings, especially the bull weanlings, because the export trade will keep them going."

Although many are cautious about how cattle prices might fare this year, some farmers are more optimistic than others.

"I reckon there's still a scarcity of cattle, so I would expect that beef prices to be more or the same as it was in 2025," one farmer told Agriland.

Another said that he would be hopefully looking for €7.50 to €8/kg for his cattle at the factories this year, while one farmer also said that he expects prices to lie "somewhere between €7 to €7.50/kg."

Auctioneer

From a mart perspective, early sales in 2026 have exceeded expectations, according to Tullamore Mart auctioneer Gordon Cobbe.

"Trade was dipping coming into Christmas, but now we have found that trade has actually steadied, and in some sectors has increased," Cobbe explained.

"It's been a good start to the year and let's hope that continues on for the rest of the year," he added

Mercosur

But regardless of their thoughts on potential prizes in 2026 many farmers believe there is a dark cloud on the horizon in the shape of Mercosur.

Some farmers believe that the volumes of South American beef involved in the trade deal could be relatively small and manageable, while others see Mercosur as a major threat.

"I think it's unfair the European farmers have to jump through so many hoops to put their beef on the shelves, whereas Brazilian beef does not seem to do that," one farmer told Agriland.

Another warned: "If cheap beef comes in, who is going to want store cattle to feed?

"If that happens, it is all over."

Could uncertainty around prices and policy also influence plans to invest?

"It is very hard for a younger farmer to go into the bank looking for a loan to build a shed on the strength of last year, because we don't know what's going to happen up the road," one farmer said.

Additional reporting by Adam Murphy