The director of Teagasc has said that there is a "lot of moving parts" in how the final picture for agricultural emissions will look for 2025 as a whole.

Recent data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that emissions from the agriculture sector decreased by 3.8% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 when compared to the same period in the previous year.

As well as that, emissions from agriculture decreased by 0.6% in the first nine months of 2025.

However, according to Teagasc director Prof. Frank O'Mara, it remains to be seen if the overall emissions figure for 2025, when finally worked out, will reflect either the nine-month trend.

Prof. O'Mara noted that while cow numbers are continuing to decrease, and that this is key driver for cutting agricultural emissions, other factors such as nitrogen fertiliser use and milk yield both moved up in 2025, putting upward pressure on emissions.

Prof O'Mara was speaking at the launch of Teagasc's Achievements 2025 - Progress with Innovations, Sustainability and Technical Performance in the Agri-Food Sector.

Speaking to Agriland, the Teagasc director outlined the key findings of the report, including the decrease in animal numbers in both the cattle and sheep sectors:

According to the new Teagasc report, agricultural greenhouse gasemissions have declined annually since 2022, reaching a cumulative 4.6% reduction in 2024, relative to the 2018 baseline.

Provisional EPA estimates indicate a further 0.6% decrease to the end of Q3 2025, mainly driven by lower cattle numbers; however, the decrease in cattle numbers was partly offset by increased nitrogen fertiliser use.

Input-use trends during 2025 were mixed, with total nitrogen fertiliser sales increasing, while the share of protected urea declined for the first time.

Sales of phosphorus and potassium fertilisers rose, although lime sales dropped by almost 90,000t to 930,000t, its lowest level in five years.

According to the report, the effort to reduce the age at finishing of beef animals has stalled, with no improvements seen in 2025.

Commenting on the progress of reducing agricultural emissions for 2025, Prof. O'Mara said: "The big drivers of emissions are animal numbers, the milk output per cow. The more of those, the more emissions.

"Then, after that, your fertiliser, and you have the proportion of your fertiliser that's protected urea. They're probably the big drivers. So for 2025...milk yield per cow went up...nitrogen fertiliser use went up, and the proportion of protected urea went down," the Teagasc director noted.

"They would all be tending to increase emissions," he explained.

They flip side of all that is livestock numbers, which decreased in 2025, and which would pull emissions downward.

"The national herd has gone down. Our suckler herd went down maybe another 30,000-odd in 2025 versus 2024. Our dairy cows went down about 1.5%. The number of progeny then born to those goes down. We had a strong live export trade for both calves and for weanlings last year," Prof. O'Mara said.

"For the first three quarters of [2025], the EPA is estimating a 0.6% reduction [in emissions] over those three quarters. If that holds true for the last quarter, it will be because of a smaller livestock herd and flock, rather than the other things that contribute to it," he noted.

"There's a lot of moving parts in that...but I think we have to wait until the final figures come out as well," Prof. O'Mara added.