Global food prices rose in February for the first time in five months, according to the new update released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The benchmark measure for world food commodity prices rose in February, ending a five-month downward trend.

This comes as higher quotations for wheat, most vegetable oils and several meat types outweighed declines in cheese and sugar prices.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 125.3 points in February, up 0.9% from its revised January level, while still 1% below its level a year earlier.

Food prices

The FAO cereal price index increased by 1.1% from January.

This was driven primarily by higher world wheat prices reflecting reports of frosts in parts of Europe and the US, as well as ongoing logistical disruptions within the Russian Federation and the wider Black Sea region.

The FAO vegetable oil price Index increased by 3.3% in February, reaching its highest level since June 2022.

International palm oil prices rose amid firm global import demand and seasonally lower outputs in Southeast Asia, while world soyoil prices increased on expectations of supportive biofuel policy measures in the US. 

Rapeseed oil prices rebounded, driven by prospects of stronger import demand for Canadian supplies.

Meat prices

The FAO meat price index increased by 0.8% from January, as ovine meat prices reached an all-time high and bovine meat prices rose.

This was on the back of strong import demand from China and the US.

Prices of pig and poultry meats edged up slightly from January.

The FAO dairy price index declined by 1.2%, driven primarily by lower cheese prices.

International quotations for skim and whole milk powders increased notably amid strengthening import demand from North Africa, the Near East and Southeast Asia.

World butter prices registered their first monthly rise since reaching an all-time high in June 2025.

Wheat production to drop

The FAO has also released new wheat production forecasts for 2026.

Preliminary outlooks point to a likely global decline of around 3% to 810 million tonnes, albeit remaining above the past five-year average.

Farmers in the EU, Russian and the US are expected to reduce the area sown to winter wheat in response to softer crop prices.

The production outlook in India, however, is generally favorable, supported by record sowings encouraged by government incentives.

Prospects are also positive for Pakistan and broadly favorable in China.

Supply and demand

FAO’s new cereal supply and demand brief also provides an early outlook for maize production south of the equator.

Expanding planted areas and favourable weather conditions point to above-average outputs in Argentina and Brazil.

In South Africa, large plantings are forecast to lead to a second consecutive bumper maize crop in 2026, although it may be below the 2025 level due to irregular weather lowering yields in some provinces.

The FAO brief also revised upwards its estimate for 2025 global cereal production to a record 3,029 million tonnes, a 5.6% increase from the previous year.