Bord Bia is expecting "some stabilisation" in the Irish breeding ewe flock this year, following significant falls in 2025.

That is according to Bord Bia's sheep meat and livestock sector manager Seamus McMenamin, who was speaking at the Bord Bia Meat Marketing Seminar 2026 today (Friday, January 16).

While outlining the supply outlook for the Irish sheep sector, McMenamin said that a lower level of imports from Northern Ireland is expected to continue.

"There is a continuing contraction the EU and UK sheep flock. That creates opportunity for us then, because it reduces the competition in the markets," he added.

However, McMenamin noted that some growth in EU sheep meat imports is expected with the potential for more UK, New Zealand and Australian produce being available.

He said that tight market supply is driving the trade but this could change as there is some expectation that there are more store lambs being kept on farms that may come available for processing in the first quarter (Q1) of the year.

UK consumption of sheepmeat is forecast to stabilise, while the "Halal market is driving and supporting demand".

McMenamin said a potential fall in production in the southern hemisphere, would "create opportunity and reduces the competition".

Sheep throughput

The seminar heard details of the "significant reduction in sheep throughput" in Ireland in 2025, which fell by 445,000 head when compared with the previous year.

This meant there was a 22% drop in the availability of sheepmeat for processing in 2025.

Based on 2023 levels, sheep throughput fell by 823,000 head last year, McMenamin said.

Among the factors that contributed to the fall were a poor lamb crop in 2024 which impacted hogget carryover into the first half (H1) of 2025.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) reported a 3% drop in breeding ewe numbers in the year to June.

In Northern Ireland, where there was a 10% reduction in production of sheepmeat, exports to Britain were prioritised leading to lower NI imports into Ireland.

Bord Bia also noted that up to 7% of the Irish sheep flock has now converted to organic which has impacted productivity.

Given the drop in throughput, export values of Irish sheepmeat were down 10% in 2025 to €360 million, while export volumes were back 15% to 51,000t.

McMenamin said that higher carcase weights helped to partially offset drop in throughput

As 80% of exports destined for EU markets, this will remain a primary focus for Bord Bia.

Bord Bia noted a further contraction in trade with the UK, while Northern Ireland was stable.

There was a very strong start to 2025 in deadweight price terms, there was no seasonal uplift in the trade ahead of Easter and Christmas.

McMenamin said that reported prices were on a gradual downward trajectory since April 2025

While prices were weaker than 2024 in the final quarter (Q4) of the year, he noted they remained "firm".

Bord Bia

The seminar heard that there has been a 2% decline in EU sheepmeat production in 2025, with that trend expected to continue to the end of the decade.

Generational renewal, profitability and volatility in the sheep trade are seen as contributing factors, along with disease issues causing significant losses in sheep flocks.

McMenamin said demand for sheepmeat has been impacted by inflation and consumer spending power.

The seminar heard that as part of Bord Bia's new Quality Mark advertising campaign lamb specific campaigns will be launched in June and September.

New television and digital adverts are also being rolled out in the first quarter (Q1) of this year will specifically target younger consumers.