Australia is expecting another year of record beef production as the country's national herd is forecast to stay above 30 million head in 2026.

Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest Australian Cattle Industry Projections is predicting that total slaughter will reach 9.45 million head this year, the highest level since 1978 and exceeding the 2025 total.

MLA has forecasted record beef production of 2.9 million tonnes carcase weight (cwt) in 2026.

Average carcase weights are expected to "remain subdued" at around 307.5kg, influenced by a larger proportion of grass fed cattle in the production sector.

Australia

The report stated that the national herd will drop 1% to 30.78 million as higher slaughter is offset by widespread rain and improved northern growing conditions.

Stephen Bignell, MLA manager for market information said producers were entering 2026 from a strong position.

"This reflects strong global demand and solid production conditions across much of northern Australia," he said.

“This would be the highest annual beef production on record at nearly 2.8 million tonnes cwt set in 2025, an 4% increase year-on-year,” Bignell added.

MLA pointed to continued processor demand, improved paddock conditions in many northern regions and gains from genetics and herd management.

The report stated that although slaughter is expected to remain at historically high levels this year, it is projected to gradually ease in 2027 and 2028 as the herd contracts.

MLA is predicting a 13.3% drop in slaughterings in 2028 compared to 2025.

The report said that feedlot activity has also been "exceptionally strong", with feedlot volumes exceeding 900,000 head in each of the final two quarters of 2025.

"These all-time records are expected to drive momentum and continue to support high processing numbers," MLA said.

Exports

Australian beef exports are projected to reach a record 2.3 million tonnes shipped weight in 2026, supported by tight global supply.

MLA said there is firm demand for lean, grass fed beef.

"It is important to note that these projections were consulted and written prior to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East,” Bignell warned.

"However, Australia’s beef markets are well diversified and there remains significant demand for Australian beef all over the world.

"We expect the conflict to influence input costs and logistics, and it is likely to affect exports to the region and global beef trade more broadly. MLA will continue to monitor market conditions and update settings as required," he added.

The report outlined that production costs remain a major challenge for cattle producers, with higher interest rates, exchange rate volatility and sudden input cost shocks continuing to squeeze margins.

Outlook

The report noted that analyst forecasts are pointing to a stable price outlook through the remainder of 2026.

Bignell said the coming years will be shaped by how the national herd responds to sustained high slaughter.

"Price movements across the major indicators are expected to remain steady.

"The herd will remain above 30 million head this year, which is a positive sign.

"We expect the herd to decline by about 6% by 2028 as the influence of consecutive high turnoff years becomes more evident," he added.

By 2028 the country's national herd is projected to total 28.5 million head.