The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has published its second UK cereal supply and demand estimates for 2025/2026.

They include the official production figures for wheat, barley and oats published by the Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).

The latest AHDB update follows the publication of the initial 2025/2026 estimates at the end of November.

The balance between supply and demand sets the overall tone of the domestic market.

AHDB publishes forecasts of cereal supply and demand, split into the topics of availability, consumption, exports, and stocks.

The publication of the latest estimates comes at a time when international dairy markets have come under sustained pressure.

Feed demand

According to AHDB, total cereals demand for animal feed in 2025/2026 is estimated at 13.313Mt, relatively unchanged (-9Kt) from November’s estimate and just 19Kt lower than levels recorded in 2024/2025. 

While total usage is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, there have been some shifts in usage amongst the categories and cereals used.

Compound feed demand in Great Britain (GB) for cereals is in fact lower than November’s estimates with pig and poultry feed demand expected to be lower than initially expected.

This follows the trend in usage data to date up to November 2025.

However, GB integrated poultry unit (IPU) demand is expected to be higher than previously estimated, while compound feed usage in Northern Ireland is also slightly up.

Cattle feed demand has continued to grow during the first five months of the season. However, while feed prices have remained relatively low for producers, milk prices have come down considerably.

But with grass turn-out approaching, AHDB is expecting that cattle feed demand will fall during the latter part of the season. 

Human and industrial demand

For 2025/2026, total cereals demand by human and industrial (H&I) sectors is estimated at 9.169Mt, 139Kt lower than November’s estimate and 1.315Mt down from 2024/2025 levels. 

If realised, this would be the lowest level of total H&I consumption recorded in 20 years.

While bioethanol usage remains unchanged from previous estimates, a further drop in brewing, malting and distilling (BMD) demand and flour miller usage is expected compared with November 2025 estimates.

The decline on the year is largely driven by the drop in bioethanol demand and BMD demand, with usage by flour millers also expected to be lower compared with 2024/2025 levels.