In its first forecast for 2026, COCERAL sees the total European harvest for combinable crops coming in at 296.7 megatonnes (Mt), down from the 306.6Mt harvested in 2025.

The figures represent a combined projection for the EU and the UK.

COCERAL is the European association of trade in cereals, oilseeds, rice, pulses, olive oil, oils and fats, animal feed and agri supply.

Wheat

Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected at 143.9Mt compared to 147.5 Mt in 2025.

Yields are expected to decrease from the exceptional levels seen in 2025, although rains over the past months have resulted in favourable soil moisture conditions, ensuring good crop development in many parts of the EU.

Wheat plantings are seen slightly higher than last year. Barley production is forecast to decline from 63.2-58.2Mt also due to a decline in yields to normal levels.

The biggest drop in production is expected for Spain after yields have been excellent in 2025 and the UK, where the acreage should drop.

Maize

Meanwhile, Europe’s 2026 maize crop should recover from the drought-affected scenario that impacted in 2025.

However, since farmers have been disappointed by maize yields achieved over recent years, plantings will probably continue to shrink, particularly in the Balkan countries and France, where farmers are switching to other spring crops, such as sunflowers and soybeans.

If realised, the EU’s corn acreage will have decreased by around 15% since 2020, from more than 9 million hectares to below 8 million hectares.

Maize production in 2026 is forecast at 58.9Mt, which compares to 57.1Mt in 2025.

Rapeseed

Europe’s rapeseed crop is forecast at 21.8Mt, exactly in line with 2025 yields.

A return from the strong 2025 output figures to average levels will be offset by a pronounced increase in plantings from 6.4 million hectares to 6.8 million hectares.

During the normal planting window for rapeseeds in August and September, farm gate prices have been very attractive.

Irish 2026 harvest

Meanwhile, initial prospects for Ireland’s 2026 cereal harvest remain good. Most winter crops were well established and continued to grow well up to last Christmas.

However, later sown crops have had to battle continuous rain and extremely waterlogged soil conditions.

Assuming February comes in dry, a significant number of tillage farmers will push ahead with spring beans, given the continuing availability of the Protein Aid Scheme.

Feed barley may well be the spring cereal of choice selected by Irish growers in 2026, given the question marks that continue to hang over the malting and oats’ sectors.